With little new injury information because of the All-Star game, I will give a bit of information on three pitchers and look at the HURT and PAIN leader boards.
• Colby Lewis***8216;s fastball is reported to be averaging 87 mph with 89 being his top end. This about 1 mph less than he threw in 2012 which was a career low.
• Chris Carpenter***8216;s fastball in his rehab starts is averaging between 90 and 91 mph. This value would be near his 2012 when his ERA and ERA estimators hovered around 4.00.
• After taking a ball of the wrist last week, Max Scherzer looked fine at the All-Star game. He averaged 96.5 mph on his fastball.
HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (all hitter with 100 PA in 2013 and 500 PA from 2010 to 2012):
Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury. Differentiating opinions exist on his heath.
• Of the top 25 HURT scores, with the minimum playing time requirements met, 19 of the players have dealt with injuries so far this season. Half of those without reported injuries were catchers who deal with bumps and bruises all the time.
• Seth Smith has the highest HURT score without a reported ailment. His ISO is on a 4 season decline along with his Contact%. His Speed Score is only on a 3 year decline. In this case, HURT may be picking up a quickly aging player instead of one who is injured.
• Overall, I am extremely happy with the current results of HURT. The one big change was removing IFFB% early on. Players are being spotted way before they are officially injured.
• The one huge improvement I would like is to run split values (monthly, 1st Half, etc). The FanGraphs database is not set up for splits on Speed Score or Contact%, so I would need to figure out a way to calculated these two with play-by-play data (or remove them). It is doable, but it would take a significant amount of time I don***8217;t have right now (looks like an off season project).
• Besides just the top 25 regulars, here is the full list of players for reference.
PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (30 IP in 2012, 30 Ip in 2013)
Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.
• Jason Marquis tops the list for several reasons. His velocity is down about 1.5 mph. Additionally, his Zone% dropped from a low 46% to an insanely low 39%. The low Zone% has led to a 5.2 BB/9 which is almost as high as his 5.8 K/9. If he didn***8217;t have a shiny 9 wins an 3.77 ERA, I doubt he would still have job. His ERA estimators average out to a +5.00 value. There is just no way he can keep up the magic act.
• The one problem with PAIN currently, it relies on Zone%. The data and theory behind a bad Zone% leading to injury is: If a pitcher can***8217;t throw strikes, then something is wrong with their arm or something will be soon because of the inconsistency. I am thinking of dropping how much it is weighted and re-look into some features like a consistent release point.
• The initial results with PAIN were promising, but as time has gone on, I need to look towards improvements. I am thinking I need to compared data over a shorter time span with a month being the ideal time frame. Like with HURT, some of the values I use are not recorded as splits in the FanGraphs database. I will likely move forward with changing this metric first as it seems to have more potential.
• Besides just the top 25 regulars, here is the full list of players for reference.
Players on the DL
(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.
More...
• Colby Lewis***8216;s fastball is reported to be averaging 87 mph with 89 being his top end. This about 1 mph less than he threw in 2012 which was a career low.
• Chris Carpenter***8216;s fastball in his rehab starts is averaging between 90 and 91 mph. This value would be near his 2012 when his ERA and ERA estimators hovered around 4.00.
• After taking a ball of the wrist last week, Max Scherzer looked fine at the All-Star game. He averaged 96.5 mph on his fastball.
HURT (Hitter’s Under-performance from Recent Trauma) Rankings (all hitter with 100 PA in 2013 and 500 PA from 2010 to 2012):
Any player with a HURT value over 100 (red) has the traits of a batter playing through an injury. Differentiating opinions exist on his heath.
| HURT | Name | HURT | PA (2013) | PA (2010 to 2012) | Hurt in 2013 |
| 1 | B.J. Upton | 201.6 | 318 | 1883 | x |
| 2 | Nolan Reimold | 171.6 | 140 | 505 | x |
| 3 | Seth Smith | 159.6 | 301 | 1372 | None |
| 4 | Alex Avila | 129.6 | 230 | 1318 | x |
| 5 | Albert Pujols | 127.2 | 407 | 2021 | x |
| 6 | Jason Kubel | 127.2 | 215 | 1554 | x |
| 7 | Aramis Ramirez | 121.2 | 209 | 1763 | x |
| 8 | Melky Cabrera | 121.2 | 335 | 1716 | x |
| 9 | Chris Iannetta | 120.0 | 250 | 902 | None |
| 10 | Giancarlo Stanton | 117.6 | 224 | 1498 | x |
| 11 | Lance Berkman | 115.2 | 282 | 1165 | x |
| 12 | Chris Johnson | 111.6 | 289 | 1295 | None |
| 13 | Jimmy Rollins | 110.4 | 403 | 1724 | x |
| 14 | Matt Kemp | 108.0 | 246 | 1806 | x |
| 15 | Brandon Phillips | 103.2 | 388 | 1985 | x |
| 16 | Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 100.8 | 287 | 864 | None |
| 17 | Justin Turner | 100.8 | 102 | 690 | x |
| 18 | Miguel Montero | 98.4 | 352 | 1457 | None |
| 19 | John Jaso | 97.2 | 233 | 1038 | x |
| 20 | Kevin Youkilis | 96.0 | 118 | 1461 | x |
| 21 | Vernon Wells | 94.8 | 322 | 1437 | None |
| 22 | Dustin Ackley | 91.2 | 219 | 1044 | x |
| 23 | Pablo Sandoval | 84.0 | 325 | 1524 | x |
| 24 | Troy Tulowitzki | 82.8 | 265 | 1338 | x |
| 25 | Brandon Inge | 82.8 | 109 | 1214 | x |
• Seth Smith has the highest HURT score without a reported ailment. His ISO is on a 4 season decline along with his Contact%. His Speed Score is only on a 3 year decline. In this case, HURT may be picking up a quickly aging player instead of one who is injured.
• Overall, I am extremely happy with the current results of HURT. The one big change was removing IFFB% early on. Players are being spotted way before they are officially injured.
• The one huge improvement I would like is to run split values (monthly, 1st Half, etc). The FanGraphs database is not set up for splits on Speed Score or Contact%, so I would need to figure out a way to calculated these two with play-by-play data (or remove them). It is doable, but it would take a significant amount of time I don***8217;t have right now (looks like an off season project).
• Besides just the top 25 regulars, here is the full list of players for reference.
PAIN (Pitcher Abuse INdex) Rankings (30 IP in 2012, 30 Ip in 2013)
Any player with a PAIN value over 100 (red) has the traits of a pitcher likely to be hurt.
| PAIN | Name | PAIN | IP (2013) | IP (2012) |
| 1 | Jason Marquis | 220.6 | 112.1 | 127.2 |
| 2 | Jeff Locke | 219.2 | 109.0 | 34.1 |
| 3 | Lucas Harrell | 184.6 | 108.1 | 193.2 |
| 4 | Alexi Ogando | 146.0 | 55.1 | 66.0 |
| 5 | Tanner Scheppers | 144.7 | 44.0 | 32.1 |
| 6 | Esmil Rogers | 141.3 | 71.2 | 78.2 |
| 7 | Matt Moore | 134.3 | 107.1 | 177.1 |
| 8 | Scott Feldman | 102.8 | 109.2 | 123.2 |
| 9 | Luis Mendoza | 102.7 | 81.1 | 166.0 |
| 10 | John Axford | 98.5 | 38.2 | 69.1 |
| 11 | Francisco Liriano | 95.5 | 76.2 | 156.2 |
| 12 | Felix Hernandez | 92.3 | 138.2 | 232.0 |
| 13 | Craig Stammen | 86.4 | 49.2 | 88.1 |
| 14 | Jordan Walden | 82.8 | 30.2 | 39.0 |
| 15 | Jered Weaver | 78.4 | 67.0 | 188.2 |
| 16 | Zack Greinke | 75.4 | 85.0 | 212.1 |
| 17 | Jake Westbrook | 74.2 | 75.0 | 174.2 |
| 18 | Ryan Webb | 73.7 | 43.0 | 60.1 |
| 19 | Ryan Dempster | 71.8 | 110.1 | 173.0 |
| 20 | Adam Ottavino | 68.0 | 47.1 | 79.0 |
| 21 | Burke Badenhop | 64.4 | 41.1 | 62.1 |
| 22 | Jamey Wright | 61.0 | 43.0 | 67.2 |
| 23 | Michael Gonzalez | 60.4 | 33.0 | 35.2 |
| 24 | Yovani Gallardo | 59.3 | 113.2 | 204.0 |
| 25 | Mat Latos | 56.5 | 120.0 | 209.1 |
• The one problem with PAIN currently, it relies on Zone%. The data and theory behind a bad Zone% leading to injury is: If a pitcher can***8217;t throw strikes, then something is wrong with their arm or something will be soon because of the inconsistency. I am thinking of dropping how much it is weighted and re-look into some features like a consistent release point.
• The initial results with PAIN were promising, but as time has gone on, I need to look towards improvements. I am thinking I need to compared data over a shorter time span with a month being the ideal time frame. Like with HURT, some of the values I use are not recorded as splits in the FanGraphs database. I will likely move forward with changing this metric first as it seems to have more potential.
• Besides just the top 25 regulars, here is the full list of players for reference.
Players on the DL
(*) 15 Day Disabled List
(**) 60 Day Disabled List
(***) 7 Day Concussion List
Red colored entries are updates since last report.
More...
