What We Said Prior To The Season:
His ability to make contact had initially been a concern, but Cespedes quickly put an end to that by posting a very tolerable 18.9% strikeout rate in ***8217;12.* While he did start of slowly, his .311, 14 HR, 46 RBI, 51 R, 10 SB line in the second half has to have fantasy owners salivating.* The question is if those numbers are actually realistic?* A .341 BABIP may be slightly elevated, especially given his line drive rates of 13.8% and 16.8% over the final two months of the year.* However, having been over 21% in each of the first four months, this may not be such a big red flag.* His HR/FB of 5.6% and 16.7% don***8217;t raise any red flags either, telling us that Cespedes***8217; second half could in fact be for real.* He is looking like a Top 20 outfielder, at worst, and more likely a borderline OF1.
What We Take From The First Half:
The hope was that his low line drive rate late in 2012 was more of an aberration, not a rule.* While he did show signs (18.2% in May, 21.2% in June), there were also poor months (like 5.0% in April, 13.9% in July).* He also has shown consistently elevated strikeout rates (28.8% in April, 31.4% in June), which hurts his average potential as well.
There’s nothing different in his swings, including his O-Swing% (34.2% vs. 33.6%) or his overall Swing% (48.0% vs. 48.2%).* Part of the problem could simply be that he’s become infatuated with the long ball, as his fly ball rate has risen at the expense of his line drive rate (47.8% vs. 39.9%).* While his Home Run Derby performance was impressive, you have to wonder if it will further skew his numbers and help him continue looking to hit the ball over the fence.
That’s not necessarily a good thing for his overall production.* While the average should improve overall (.251 BABIP), the lofty expectations we had for him no longer look realistic.
Second Half Projection:
.262 (59-225),*12 HR, 35 RBI, 30 R,*7 SB, .280 BABIP, .329 OBP, .516 SLG
Conclusion:
There is no questioning Cespedes ability, but this year could quickly become a “lost” cause.* If concerns about his fly ball rate weren’t already there, we all know the effect the Home Run Derby can have on a players’ swing.* With the strikeout rate concern once again rearing its head, coupled with the potential for him to continue swinging for the fences, chances are he’s not going to live up to all of our hopes for him.* Consider it a “sophomore slump”, of sorts, just be prepared for this potential.* That***8217;s not to say he***8217;s not going to be productive, just not like we had all hoped for.
Make sure to check out all of our second half projections:
- Choo, Shin-Soo
- Davis, Chris
- Heyward, Jason
- Lackey, John
- Lawrie, Brett
- Puig, Yasiel
- Pujols, Albert
- Samardzija, Jeff
More...
