The success of Chris Davis is a dangerous thing. It gives hope to power-only, high-strikeout hitters everywhere as well as gives hope to their fantasy owners. There are always improved hitters from one year to another (mostly not to the level of Davis), and in 2014 Pedro Alvarez is a good candidate to explode.
Over the past few years Pedro Alvarez has been a rather limited hitter, providing a ton of home runs and decent RBI totals. This year, he is on pace for roughly 40 home runs and more than 100 RBI as compared to last year when he blasted 30 bombs and drove in 85. Despite those numbers, Alvarez was available on many mixed league waiver wires in May of this year after a slow start to the season, proving that much of the hype generated from being a 2nd overall draft pick and top-ranked prospect has worn off since his major league debut in 2010.
Alvarez’s power is huge and legitimate, proven by his current batted ball distance on home runs and fly balls of 310 feet, according to Baseball Heat Maps, which ranks 5th in the MLB. Yet his fantasy value is anchored by a weak batting average and on-base percentage. Right now Alvarez has a .236 average and a sub-.300 OBP. While average and OBP are down around the majors, .230/.300 is hard to put up with in your fantasy lineup.
His average and OBP are weighed down by his horrifying strikeout rate, which has sat above 30 percent his whole career, and his complete ineptitude against left-handed pitchers. However, this year Alvarez has made a small step forward by increasing his line drive rate, hitting liners at a 22.3 percent clip this year compared to 17.6 percent over his career entering this season. Despite hitting more liners, his batting average on balls in play dipped slightly from last year and currently sits below .300, implying that he has gotten rather unlucky in 2013.
This is where Chris Davis comes into the picture. In Davis’ first breakout season in 2012, his peripherals were similar to what Alvarez has done this season. Check out their numbers side-by-side:
| Player | G | HR | AVG | OBP | BB% | K% | BABIP | LD% | GB% | FB% | HR/FB |
| 2013 Alvarez | 122 | 32 | .238 | .299 | 8.0% | 32.5% | .289 | 22% | 41.4% | 36.6% | 29.6% |
| 2012 Davis | 139 | 33 | .270 | .326 | 6.6% | 30.1% | .335 | 23.2% | 39.3% | 37.5% | 25.2% |
They’re basically the same human! Alvarez has shown more power this year than the 2012 Chris Davis, but lacks massively in the BABIP. If Alvarez had Davis’ .335 BABIP, Pedro would be hitting .262 right now with a .319 OBP. Now keep in mind that Davis had a higher line drive rate than Alvarez has, which helps the BABIP, but since it’s such a small difference in liners it’s safe to say that a lot of this is just bad luck for Alvarez.
Listen, I’m not saying that Pedro Alvarez is going to hit .300 next year and be the 2nd best hitter in fantasy baseball the way Chris Davis has this year. *I do think a lot can be gleaned from Davis’ development in how power hitters can develop and how they can have success and high batting averages while still striking out a lot.
Sure we could be seeing Alvarez’s true talent level right now, but given how young he is (he’s only 26), I’m willing to buy a lottery ticket in case he has a real breakout season next year. Considering he now has back-to-back 30 homer seasons, it’s safe for you keeper leaguers to start targeting him in trades and for the rest of you to begin moving him up your early 2014 draft boards.
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